02.05.2025Official Preview: Japan Rugby League One 2024-25 Round Seventeen
Division One
There might still be another week of the regular season to play after the final whistle in Sunday’s match between Yokohama Canon Eagles and Kobelco Kobe Steelers, but several outstanding issues in Japan Rugby League One may be resolved by then.
At the top, first plays second, with the winner on Saturday between league leaders Saitama Panasonic Wild Knights and their closest pursuers, Kubota Spears Funabashi Tokyo-Bay, almost certain to earn a bye in the first weekend of the playoffs as reward for a top two finish.
While history sides with the Wild Knights, with last year’s 55-22 win their 15th from 16 matches against the Spears dating back to 2006, Kubota’s sole win was the most important of the lot, with their nail biting 17-15 success in the final of League One’s second edition winning for the club its first nationwide Japanese title.
Wild Knights coach Robbie Deans rested Springbok test stars – Damien de Allende and Lood de Jager – from last week’s 27-21 win over Ricoh Black Rams Tokyo, but the return of outstanding backrower Lachlan Boshier after five weeks on the sideline in the match was timely, while Brave Blossoms outside centre Dylan Riley is among several other names who are fit again with the playoffs on the horizon.
Japanese star, utility back Takuya Yamasawa, also returns, with the man-of-the-match from the inaugural League One final not having featured since the second round due to injury.
Although Saitama are re-arming, Frans Ludeke and his team have enjoyed a serene run after injuries wrecked last year’s title defence.
They arrive at Prince Chichibu Stadium on a six-game winning streak – the longest in the competition – with their only defeats having come by two and four points respectively against the Wild Knights and Toshiba Brave Lupus Tokyo.
Even in defeat, December’s clash showed just how good the Spears’ season might turn out, after they recovered from a 20-3 halftime deficit at Kumagaya, and could have beaten the Wild Knights had Wallaby flyhalf Bernard Foley not missed a difficult penalty attempt in the 78th minute of a 26-24 loss.
While both sides have long been confirmed for the playoffs, major psychological capital can still be won, while the loser will find their playoff plans at the mercy of Brave Lupus.
The defending champions can jump into the top two with wins on the final two weekends, starting with Saturday’s outing against the now all but mathematically eliminated Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Sagamihara Dynaboars.
Glenn Delaney’s side have enjoyed another promising season, which has included notable wins over Kobe, Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath and Yokohama, but they still need another W to exceed last year’s tally of six wins.
With Brave Lupus having won the corresponding clash in December 61-8, running in nine tries after Sagamihara second- rower Epineri Uluiviti was sent off, the Dynaboars hopes of bettering last year’s return may have to wait until their final game of the season against Urayasu D-Rocks.
Further down the rankings, Sungoliath will be aiming to make their last round date with the Wild Knights academic, by locking in the sixth and final playoffs slot when they take on one of their remaining rivals for that position, Ricoh Black Rams Tokyo.
Although the Black Rams enter the weekend eight points astern of Sungoliath, a win – especially if achieved with a bonus point – would place them in the prime position to qualify, given they host 11th-placed Mie Honda Heat on the final weekend.
Importantly, if the two do end the season level, Ricoh will win the tie breaker by having won both matches, after edging Suntory 33-32 when they last met.
The fact they were able to defend the one-point advantage for the final 16 minutes on that occasion won’t have been forgotten by either side.
Heat have a massive 80 minutes ahead as well, with Sunday’s tie against Toyota Verblitz likely to decide which of the pair participate in the promotion/relegation series.
With Verblitz holding a two-point advantage, and Honda winless in their last seven, defeat would be a disaster for Steve Hansen’s men, given their final week of the regular season entails a visit from Kubota.
Shizuoka BlueRevs’ comeback win over Yokohama Canon Eagles, where they overturned a 21-0 deficit, to win by 10 points, was their sixth win from the last seven, and they will be expected to continue their intoxicating run into the playoffs against a D-Rocks outfit now focused on defending their Division One status in The Replacement Battle.
The BlueRevs’ likely opponents on the opening weekend of the playoffs, Kobelco Kobe Steelers, will also be seeking to continue their recent momentum, having won five of their last six, when they meet the Eagles, whose own playoff ambitions are on life support.
While a win would allow Keisuke Sawaki’s side to stay alive for another week, a date against Brave Lupus on the final day looks like it would be a bridge too far for a side that has only won twice since the start of February.
Divisions Two & Three
It’s now or never for Quade Cooper’s Hanazono Kintetsu Liners.
Despite an underwhelming start to the campaign, when it took four outings to register a win, last season’s Division One outfit have put themselves in the picture for a promotion shot via The Replacement Battle, but only if they can win their final two matches, starting with Saturday’s engagement against NEC Green Rockets Tokatsu.
Should Kintetsu lose, any chance of marking the Wallaby veteran’s departure by achieving an instant return to Division One, will be gone.
Win and it will be all to play for on the final weekend against current section leaders Toyota Industries Shuttles Aichi, where both promotion series entry and the division title could be the prize.
As well as putting Kintetsu’s hopes to bed, the Green Rockets could also make a play for the section title if they can prevail on Saturday, although that would require a slip up by the Shuttles in one of their final two matches.
While, barring a draw between their two rivals, the Shuttles cannot seal the title by beating Hino Red Dolphins, victory would confirm a place in the promotion/relegation series for a third successive season.
The permutations are no less complex further down the ladder, where Kamaishi Seawaves are already confirmed for the battle against Division Three’s best, but the identity of Division Two’s second candidate for relegation jeopardy is still to be decided, with each of the Red Hurricanes, Hino, Kyushu Electric Power Kyuden Voltex and Shimizu Corporation Blue Sharks still in peril.
The Red Hurricanes are best placed of the quartet, with their seven-point advantage over the seventh-ranked Voltex meaning they would probably survive even if they lost their final two matches, although this is not something a side that has seen its season come apart with six consecutive losses will be taking much comfort from.
A win over the Seawaves, who triggered their dramatic slide, will get them over the finish line, leaving the trio immediately below to sort the final details out.
With Hino facing a Shuttles side who put 54 points on them the last time the two met, their hopes may rest on a final round appointment with the Blue Sharks, who will firstly get a crack at Voltex in a game that should see the winner safe.
While the Fukuoka men have been fiercely competitive and should have achieved more than their current tally of four wins, success either on Saturday or on the final day against the Seawaves is still required to allow Voltex to start planning for another season in Division Two.
This is a prospect Mazda SkyActivs Hiroshima have already given themselves a shot at after being confirmed in one of Division Three’s places in The Replacement Battle, but they also have an opportunity to add the section title to their achievement, which they will be very close to should they beat Le RIRO Fukuoka in Sunday’s final match of the split round.
While a bonus point drew Sayama Secom Rugguts level on points despite their surprise defeat against Yakalt Levins Toda last week, the SkyActivs have much the better point’s differential and would be almost certain to claim the title if they can pick up five points from their remaining two games.
As the last of those is the third Hiroshima derby of the season, getting the job done against Fukuoka would ease nerves given the additional pressures and unpredictability associated with any clash between local rivals.
Although Le RIRO are much improved, shocking the higher ranked Kurita Water Gush Akishima last time, the division tailenders have shipped 106 points in their previous two meetings against SkyActivs which doesn’t inspire confidence.